How to Improve Political Forecasts

 

## Improving Political Forecasts: The Role of Probability in Understanding Elections

In the realm of political forecasting, the 2016 U.S. presidential election served as a wake-up call for analysts and the public alike. As discussed in Aubrey Clayton's insightful article for *Nautilus*, the challenges and failures of predicting electoral outcomes underscore the need for a more nuanced understanding of probability and its application in political analysis. This blog post will delve into the key principles outlined in Clayton's piece, exploring how they can enhance our approach to political forecasting.

### **The Nature of Political Forecasting**

Political forecasting often resembles a high-stakes game where analysts attempt to predict outcomes based on available data, polling, and historical trends. However, as Clayton points out, this process is inherently fraught with uncertainty. The 2016 election highlighted the limitations of traditional forecasting methods, particularly when relying heavily on statistical models that failed to account for unexpected variables.

### **1. Embracing Improbability**

One of the central themes in Clayton's article is the idea that improbable events are bound to occur, particularly in large sample sizes. This concept, known as the Law of Truly Large Numbers, suggests that with enough data points—such as polls and primaries—unusual outcomes will inevitably arise. 

For instance, if we consider a candidate with a low probability of winning, such as Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson running for president, it’s essential to recognize that while his candidacy may seem unlikely, it is not impossible. The occurrence of an unexpected result should prompt analysts to reassess their assumptions rather than dismiss it outright.

### **2. The Fluctuation of Probabilities**

Another critical point raised by Clayton is the fluctuation of probabilities as events unfold. During the lead-up to the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton's chances of winning varied significantly in forecasts, sometimes swinging between 55% and 85%. Critics argued that this instability indicated a failure in the predictive models.

However, Clayton emphasizes that such fluctuations can be expected in close races where small changes in polling can lead to dramatic shifts in predicted outcomes. Understanding this volatility is crucial for interpreting forecasts accurately; it reflects not just changes in public opinion but also the inherent uncertainties in electoral dynamics.

### **3. Aligning Probabilities with Frequencies**

While aligning predicted probabilities with actual outcomes is essential for validating forecasts, Clayton cautions against relying solely on frequency validation for one-time events like elections. Unlike rolling dice or flipping coins—where outcomes can be repeated under controlled conditions—elections are unique occurrences influenced by countless variables.

For instance, unexpected events like James Comey’s letter about Clinton’s emails had significant implications for polling data just days before the election. Such occurrences can skew predictions and highlight gaps in forecasting models. Therefore, while frequency validation is valuable, it should be complemented by a broader understanding of contextual factors influencing electoral outcomes.

### **4. The Value of Probabilistic Forecasts**

Despite their imperfections, probabilistic forecasts offer a more robust framework for understanding political dynamics than traditional narrative-driven analyses. As Clayton notes, probability provides a structured way to incorporate new information and adjust predictions accordingly.

By applying Bayesian reasoning—updating beliefs based on new evidence—analysts can refine their forecasts over time. This approach encourages a more dynamic understanding of political landscapes and allows for better-informed decision-making.

### **Conclusion: Moving Forward with Probability**

The complexities of political forecasting demand a shift in how we interpret data and understand elections. By embracing principles of probability and recognizing the inherent uncertainties involved, analysts can develop more accurate and meaningful forecasts.

As we move toward future elections, incorporating these insights will not only improve our understanding of electoral dynamics but also help us engage more thoughtfully with the political landscape. In an era where misinformation and oversimplification abound, grounding our analyses in probabilistic reasoning offers a path toward clarity and informed discourse in political forecasting.

Citations:

[1] https://nautil.us/how-to-improve-political-forecasts-237355/

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The obscure calculation transforming climate policy

 

## The Obscure Calculation Transforming Climate Policy

In the ongoing battle against climate change, one of the most critical yet often overlooked factors is the social discount rate—a concept that significantly influences how governments and institutions evaluate long-term environmental policies. As highlighted in a recent article from *Knowable Magazine*, this calculation not only shapes economic decisions but also reflects our ethical responsibilities toward future generations.

### **Understanding the Social Discount Rate**

The social discount rate is a financial tool used to compare the present value of costs and benefits of a policy against its future impacts. Essentially, it helps policymakers determine how much future benefits are worth in today’s terms. For example, if a project promises to prevent $1 trillion in climate damages by 2100, the discount rate helps calculate what that amount is worth now.

This calculation is crucial for climate policy because it can drastically alter the perceived cost-effectiveness of environmental regulations. A lower discount rate increases the present value of future benefits, making investments in climate mitigation appear more attractive.

### **Recent Changes in U.S. Policy**

The Biden Administration's recent decision to nearly quadruple the social cost of carbon—an estimate of the economic damages associated with each ton of carbon dioxide emitted—illustrates the significant impact of this calculation. By reducing the discount rate from 3% to 2%, officials have effectively raised the social cost of carbon from $51 to $190 per ton. This shift emphasizes the urgent need to address greenhouse gas emissions and reflects a growing recognition of our obligations to future generations.

Economists argue that even small changes in the discount rate can lead to vastly different policy outcomes. For instance, during the Trump administration, a higher discount rate was used to justify rolling back fuel efficiency standards, while lower rates under Obama had deemed those same standards beneficial.

### **The Ethical Debate**

The social discount rate is not merely a technical calculation; it embodies an ethical debate about how we prioritize current versus future needs. Nicholas Stern’s influential 2006 report advocated for a low discount rate (1.4%), arguing that future generations should be given equal consideration as those living today. This perspective challenges traditional economic models that often favor immediate benefits over long-term sustainability.

Critics, however, argue that using a very low or even negative discount rate could lead to sacrificing current welfare for uncertain future gains. Nobel laureate William Nordhaus contends that prioritizing future generations could impoverish people today, suggesting that a higher discount rate based on market interest rates is more appropriate.

### **Global Implications**

The implications of these calculations extend beyond U.S. borders. While wealthier nations may benefit from using lower discount rates to justify climate action, applying the same rates in developing countries could exacerbate existing inequalities. Nfamara Dampha emphasizes that poorer nations facing immediate challenges—such as lack of access to clean water—may require higher discount rates to ensure resources are directed toward pressing needs.

Conversely, wealthier countries that have historically contributed more to climate change should adopt lower rates when funding environmental projects in developing regions as a matter of climate justice.

### **Bridging Economics and Ethics**

As discussions around climate policy evolve, there is a growing consensus among economists and philosophers on the importance of using a 2% social discount rate for long-term projects aimed at mitigating climate change. This figure appears to balance ethical considerations with economic realities, providing a framework for evaluating policies intended to limit global warming effectively.

However, experts like Mark Freeman stress that these discussions should not remain confined to academic circles or government offices. Greater public involvement is essential for ensuring that social discount rates reflect collective values and priorities.

### **Conclusion**

The social discount rate may seem like an abstract economic concept, but its ramifications are deeply felt in climate policy and beyond. As we grapple with urgent environmental challenges, understanding and recalibrating this calculation will be crucial in shaping effective strategies for sustainable development. By recognizing our responsibilities toward future generations and engaging in meaningful discussions about these rates, we can foster policies that not only address immediate needs but also pave the way for a more sustainable and equitable future.

Citations:

[1] https://knowablemagazine.org/content/article/society/2022/the-obscure-calculation-transforming-climate-policy

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The Fantasy World of Political Polling

 

## The Fantasy World of Political Polling

In the intricate landscape of American politics, polling has become a pervasive tool, shaping narratives and influencing public perception. However, as Jay Caspian Kang explores in his article for *The New Yorker*, the world of political polling often resembles a fantasy realm—one where numbers and analyses can obscure the complexities of real-world politics.

### **The Allure of Predictive Analysis**

Polling has long been touted as a means to predict electoral outcomes and gauge public sentiment. Yet, Kang argues that the reliance on these statistical tools often leads to oversimplification. The analysis that follows polls can create a narrative that prioritizes minor fluctuations over substantive discussions about candidates and their policies. This tendency to treat elections like fantasy sports—where analysts act as managers making strategic decisions based on statistics—detracts from the critical issues at stake.

Kang notes that many political analysts, including those at prominent platforms like FiveThirtyEight, began their careers in fantasy sports. This background fosters a mindset that reduces complex electoral dynamics to mere numbers and trends. While this approach can yield insights, it often neglects the nuances of voter motivations and the broader socio-political context.

### **The Limitations of Polling Data**

One of the core criticisms Kang raises is the inherent unreliability of polling data. Unlike established statistics in sports, political polls are fraught with uncertainties—sample sizes, question phrasing, and timing can all skew results. The challenge lies in translating these numbers into actionable insights about candidate viability or voter sentiment.

Moreover, Kang highlights how political commentary increasingly focuses on polls rather than the candidates themselves. For instance, discussions surrounding Kamala Harris's immigration stance or Donald Trump's behavior often hinge on polling data rather than substantive policy analysis. This shift creates a narrative where electoral success is seen as achievable through minor adjustments rather than through genuine engagement with voters' concerns.

### **The Psychological Underpinnings**

The allure of polling lies in its promise to demystify the electoral process. In a world filled with uncertainties, voters often seek reassurance that numbers can provide clarity. Kang suggests that this desire for certainty fuels a reliance on analysts who present themselves as experts capable of deciphering complex political landscapes through data.

However, this reliance can lead to disillusionment when predictions fail to materialize. The 2016 election serves as a poignant example; many polls inaccurately forecasted Hillary Clinton's victory, leading to widespread shock and confusion when Donald Trump won. This event highlighted the limitations of polling as a predictive tool and raised questions about its role in shaping public discourse.

### **A Call for Depth Over Numbers**

Kang argues for a more nuanced approach to political analysis—one that prioritizes depth over superficial metrics. While polls can offer valuable insights into voter sentiment, they should not overshadow the importance of understanding candidates' policies and values. Engaging with voters on issues that matter to them requires moving beyond numerical analysis and fostering genuine conversations about governance.

Furthermore, he emphasizes the need for analysts to acknowledge the complexities of electoral outcomes rather than offering definitive predictions based solely on polling data. By doing so, they can contribute to a more informed electorate that understands the intricacies of political engagement.

### **Conclusion**

The world of political polling is undeniably influential but fraught with pitfalls. As Jay Caspian Kang illustrates in his *New Yorker* article, treating elections like fantasy sports diminishes the significance of real-world issues and candidate commitments. While polling can serve as a tool for understanding public sentiment, it is essential to approach it with caution and recognize its limitations.

Ultimately, fostering meaningful conversations about politics requires moving beyond numbers and engaging with the deeper narratives that shape our electoral landscape. By prioritizing substance over superficiality, we can cultivate a more informed electorate capable of navigating the complexities of modern governance.

Citations:

[1] https://www.newyorker.com/news/fault-lines/the-fantasy-world-of-political-polling

[2] https://www.brookings.edu/articles/polling-public-opinion-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/

[3] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/elections/fantasy-game

[4] https://www.graffitistreet.com/art-and-activism-10-street-artists-using-the-power-of-art-as-a-catalyst-for-change/

[5] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-20/national-gallery-of-victoria-ngv-the-stars-we-do-not-see/104371920

[6] https://lithub.com/sorry-michelangelo-da-vinci-was-the-true-master-of-the-human-form-in-art/

[7] https://inartematt.com/2020/11/01/leonardo-and-michelangelo-an-ideological-rivalry/

[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indigenous_Australian_art

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How place names impact the way we see landscape

Place names are more than just labels; they are imbued with history, culture, and identity. In her article for *High Country News*, B. ‘Toastie’ Oaster explores the profound impact of place names on our perception of landscapes, particularly in the context of Indigenous communities in North America. By examining the stories behind these names, we can better understand how they influence our relationship with the land and its history.

### **Colonial Narratives vs. Indigenous Perspectives**

The article begins with a striking example: El Capitan in Yosemite National Park. While settlers named it after their own experiences of conquest, the Southern Sierra Miwuk people refer to it as Measuring-Worm Stone, a name steeped in a story that emphasizes patience and resilience. This contrast highlights how colonial narratives often overshadow Indigenous perspectives, reducing complex histories to simplified tales of conquest.

Laura Tohe, poet laureate of the Navajo Nation, emphasizes that place names carry stories that connect individuals to their cultural heritage. For Indigenous peoples, these stories are not merely historical; they provide a sense of belonging and identity. Tohe’s reflections on the San Francisco Peaks—known as *Dook’o’oosłííd*—illustrate how Indigenous names encapsulate spiritual significance and environmental stewardship.

### **Place Identity and Community Mind**

The concept of “place identity,” as defined by psychologist Harold Proshansky, plays a crucial role in understanding how individuals relate to their environment. According to linguistic anthropologist Phillip Cash Cash, Indigenous worldviews perceive humans as integral components of the landscape rather than its masters. This perspective fosters a deeper connection to place, where names serve as reminders of ancestral teachings and communal narratives.

Cash Cash explains that sacred sites hold both physical and mythic significance, intertwining community history with the landscape itself. When colonial names replace Indigenous ones, this connection is disrupted, leading to a fragmented understanding of place and identity.

### **The Struggle for Recognition**

The article also delves into the challenges faced by Indigenous communities in reclaiming their place names. For instance, many places are named after settlers who had little understanding of the land or its original inhabitants. Tohe points out that names like “Lupton” offer no context or meaning to those who live there today. In contrast, traditional names like *Tsé Si’ání* (Sitting Rock) resonate with local histories and natural features.

The struggle to rename places often reflects broader societal issues related to recognition and respect for Indigenous cultures. Cash Cash highlights how historical injustices continue to manifest in place naming practices, keeping alive the trauma of dispossession and cultural erasure.

### **Healing Through Names**

Despite these challenges, there is hope for healing through the reclamation of Indigenous place names. When an Indigenous name is restored or recognized, it serves as an act of reconnection—both for Indigenous peoples and for non-Native individuals seeking to understand their relationship with the land. Tohe asserts that using sacred names can be transformative; it allows stories to persist and fosters a deeper appreciation for the landscape.

As communities work towards reclaiming their histories through place names, they also invite broader discussions about identity, belonging, and environmental stewardship. Renaming places can be seen as an opportunity for education and reconciliation, encouraging all individuals to engage with the land’s stories respectfully.

### **Conclusion**

The exploration of place names reveals their power in shaping our understanding of landscapes and cultures. As B. ‘Toastie’ Oaster illustrates through compelling examples and insights from Indigenous voices, recognizing and honoring these names is essential for fostering meaningful connections to the land. By embracing the stories behind place names—both colonial and Indigenous—we can cultivate a deeper respect for our shared histories and promote healing within our communities.

Citations:

[1] https://www.hcn.org/issues/54-5/people-places-how-place-names-impact-the-way-we-see-landscape/

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The United States of Political Violence

 

## Indigenous Art in Australia and North America: Preserving Heritage through Creativity

Indigenous art in Australia and North America serves as a vital conduit for preserving cultural heritage while addressing contemporary issues. Through various artistic expressions, Indigenous communities convey their histories, beliefs, and social narratives, ensuring that their rich traditions continue to resonate in modern society.

## **Cultural Significance of Indigenous Art**

### **Australia**

Indigenous Australian art encompasses a vast array of practices, including painting, weaving, carving, and sculpture. This art form is one of the oldest continuous traditions in the world, with some works dating back over 40,000 years. The significance of Indigenous art lies not only in its aesthetic value but also in its role as a storytelling medium. Artists use symbols and motifs to represent Dreamtime stories—myths that explain the creation of the land and its people.

The upcoming exhibition "The Stars We Do Not See," set to tour North America starting in 2025, will showcase over 200 pieces from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander artists. This exhibition aims to highlight the diversity of Indigenous art practices, from traditional dot paintings to contemporary installations that challenge perceptions of what Indigenous art can be. Curator Myles Russell-Cook emphasizes the importance of transcultural relationships between Indigenous Australians and Native Americans, showcasing shared experiences of colonization and cultural resilience.

### **North America**

In North America, Indigenous art serves similar purposes, acting as a means of cultural expression and identity preservation. Native American artists often incorporate traditional techniques and materials into their work, such as beadwork, pottery, and weaving. These practices not only reflect their heritage but also address contemporary issues faced by Indigenous communities, including land rights and environmental justice.

Exhibitions featuring Native American art have gained prominence in recent years, helping to educate broader audiences about the rich cultural narratives embedded in these works. Artists like Jaune Quick-to-See Smith use their platforms to comment on historical injustices while celebrating Indigenous identity through innovative mediums.

## **Contemporary Expressions and Innovations**

The blending of traditional techniques with modern artistic practices is a hallmark of contemporary Indigenous art. Many artists are exploring new materials and forms to express their cultural narratives. For instance:

- **Digital Art**: Some Indigenous artists are utilizing digital platforms to create works that reach global audiences, allowing them to share their stories beyond geographical boundaries.

- **Installation Art**: Installations often incorporate elements from nature or community participation, making the artwork an immersive experience that engages viewers on multiple levels.

- **Performance Art**: Performance pieces can communicate cultural rituals or historical events, providing a dynamic way to connect with audiences.

These innovative approaches not only preserve traditional knowledge but also make it relevant to contemporary discussions about identity and belonging.

## **Challenges and Opportunities**

Despite the vibrant expressions of Indigenous art today, challenges remain. Issues such as appropriation, misrepresentation, and lack of access to resources continue to affect Indigenous artists. However, there is also a growing movement towards recognition and respect for Indigenous cultures within the global art community.

Collaborations between Indigenous artists and institutions can provide platforms for showcasing their work while ensuring that cultural protocols are respected. The upcoming exhibition in North America represents a significant opportunity for dialogue between cultures and an avenue for greater appreciation of Indigenous artistry.

## **Conclusion**

Indigenous art in Australia and North America is not merely a reflection of past traditions; it is a living practice that evolves with time while preserving essential cultural narratives. As contemporary artists innovate within this framework, they ensure that their heritage remains vibrant and relevant. Through exhibitions like "The Stars We Do Not See," audiences worldwide can engage with these powerful stories, fostering understanding and appreciation for the rich tapestry of Indigenous cultures.

Citations:

[1] https://time.com/6227754/political-violence-us-states-midterms-2022/

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